Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於到8月底， 6.0以上的地震會在哪裡發生？
到8月底， 6.0以上的地震會在哪裡發生？
最新
2026-09-03
日本
65%
美國
22%
智利
17%
墨西哥
16%
印尼
49%
菲律賓
59%
$1,640 交易量
日本
$193 交易量
65%
美國
$473 交易量
22%
智利
$96 交易量
17%
墨西哥
$315 交易量
16%
印尼
$257 交易量
49%
菲律賓
$306 交易量
59%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$1,640結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETThis market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
交易量
$1,640結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETRecent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of one to two magnitude 6.5+ events per week globally, concentrated along subduction zones such as the Japan Trench, Philippine Sea plate boundary, and Kermadec arc, where recent analogs include the M6.8 Kumamoto event in late July and M6.3 quakes in early August. A M7.4 event in Colombia on August 10 highlights elevated activity in the Pacific Ring of Fire, though earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable beyond long-term probabilistic hazard maps. With roughly 19 days remaining until market resolution, traders weigh the likelihood of additional M6+ shocks in high-strain regions against the low probability of none occurring, informed by daily USGS catalog updates and the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences exceeding thresholds. Model consensus supports continued activity consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous clustering.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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