Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light winds, and a persistent high-pressure ridge on August 31, supporting a peak temperature near 32–34°C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus underpins the market’s strong tilt toward 34°C (61.5%), with secondary probability on 33°C (22.0%) reflecting slight model spread in maximum readings across the urban area. A modest chance of 35°C (16.5%) persists if afternoon heating exceeds expectations, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the absence of cooler advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance issued over the past 24 hours have reinforced this narrow range without introducing significant revisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月31日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 62%
33°C 21%
35°C 16%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
21%
34°C
62%
35°C
16%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 62%
33°C 21%
35°C 16%
32°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
29°C or below
$454 交易量
<1%
30°C
$170 交易量
<1%
31°C
$170 交易量
<1%
32°C
$286 交易量
3%
33°C
$1,603 交易量
21%
34°C
$1,271 交易量
62%
35°C
$2,220 交易量
16%
36°C
$335 交易量
<1%
37°C
$141 交易量
<1%
38°C
$238 交易量
<1%
39°C or higher
$155 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light winds, and a persistent high-pressure ridge on August 31, supporting a peak temperature near 32–34°C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus underpins the market’s strong tilt toward 34°C (61.5%), with secondary probability on 33°C (22.0%) reflecting slight model spread in maximum readings across the urban area. A modest chance of 35°C (16.5%) persists if afternoon heating exceeds expectations, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the absence of cooler advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance issued over the past 24 hours have reinforced this narrow range without introducing significant revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$7,043結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light winds, and a persistent high-pressure ridge on August 31, supporting a peak temperature near 32–34°C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus underpins the market’s strong tilt toward 34°C (61.5%), with secondary probability on 33°C (22.0%) reflecting slight model spread in maximum readings across the urban area. A modest chance of 35°C (16.5%) persists if afternoon heating exceeds expectations, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the absence of cooler advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance issued over the past 24 hours have reinforced this narrow range without introducing significant revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,043結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting models indicate Madrid will experience clear skies, light winds, and a persistent high-pressure ridge on August 31, supporting a peak temperature near 32–34°C under typical late-summer continental conditions. This consensus underpins the market’s strong tilt toward 34°C (61.5%), with secondary probability on 33°C (22.0%) reflecting slight model spread in maximum readings across the urban area. A modest chance of 35°C (16.5%) persists if afternoon heating exceeds expectations, while lower outcomes remain improbable given the absence of cooler advection or cloud cover. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance issued over the past 24 hours have reinforced this narrow range without introducing significant revisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions