**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C high for Tokyo on August 30, 2026, at 99.9% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and early observations show cloudy skies with morning rain limiting solar heating and keeping daytime maxima near or at 26°C, well below the seasonal normal of ~30°C. Recent model runs and surface reports confirm suppressed temperatures under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow, consistent with the day's observed peak. This positioning reflects real-time data from authoritative monitoring rather than speculation. A late-day spike above 27°C or revision in the final JMA summary could still shift the outcome, though current conditions make such changes unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日東京氣溫最高？
8月30日東京氣溫最高？
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$69,736 交易量
$69,736 交易量
2026-08-30
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.8%
27°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$69,736 交易量
$69,736 交易量
2026-08-30
23°C or below
$2,920 交易量
<1%
24°C
$5,589 交易量
<1%
25°C
$9,025 交易量
<1%
26°C
$10,873 交易量
100%
27°C
$9,229 交易量
1%
28°C
$9,181 交易量
<1%
29°C
$6,546 交易量
<1%
30°C
$5,039 交易量
<1%
31°C
$1,255 交易量
<1%
32°C
$2,650 交易量
<1%
33°C or higher
$7,428 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C high for Tokyo on August 30, 2026, at 99.9% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and early observations show cloudy skies with morning rain limiting solar heating and keeping daytime maxima near or at 26°C, well below the seasonal normal of ~30°C. Recent model runs and surface reports confirm suppressed temperatures under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow, consistent with the day's observed peak. This positioning reflects real-time data from authoritative monitoring rather than speculation. A late-day spike above 27°C or revision in the final JMA summary could still shift the outcome, though current conditions make such changes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$69,736結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C high for Tokyo on August 30, 2026, at 99.9% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and early observations show cloudy skies with morning rain limiting solar heating and keeping daytime maxima near or at 26°C, well below the seasonal normal of ~30°C. Recent model runs and surface reports confirm suppressed temperatures under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow, consistent with the day's observed peak. This positioning reflects real-time data from authoritative monitoring rather than speculation. A late-day spike above 27°C or revision in the final JMA summary could still shift the outcome, though current conditions make such changes unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$69,736結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Trader consensus centers on a 26°C high for Tokyo on August 30, 2026, at 99.9% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and early observations show cloudy skies with morning rain limiting solar heating and keeping daytime maxima near or at 26°C, well below the seasonal normal of ~30°C. Recent model runs and surface reports confirm suppressed temperatures under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow, consistent with the day's observed peak. This positioning reflects real-time data from authoritative monitoring rather than speculation. A late-day spike above 27°C or revision in the final JMA summary could still shift the outcome, though current conditions make such changes unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions