Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日華沙的最高溫度？
8月31日華沙的最高溫度？
27°C or higher 61%
26°C 28%
25°C 7%
24°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C or higher
61%
27°C or higher 61%
26°C 28%
25°C 7%
24°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
17°C or below
$251 交易量
<1%
18°C
$254 交易量
<1%
19°C
$351 交易量
<1%
20°C
$351 交易量
<1%
21°C
$215 交易量
<1%
22°C
$497 交易量
<1%
23°C
$342 交易量
1%
24°C
$325 交易量
4%
25°C
$1,472 交易量
7%
26°C
$878 交易量
28%
27°C or higher
$3,215 交易量
61%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$8,150結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,150結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent model consensus from GFS and other guidance supports a peak temperature near or slightly above 27°C in Warsaw on August 31, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms possible by afternoon. These convective developments and associated cloud cover introduce uncertainty in realizing the full diurnal maximum, as evaporative cooling and reduced insolation can suppress highs by 1–2°C. Current forecasts cluster between 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on the 27°C threshold (60.5% implied probability) while assigning lower odds to cooler bins. Updated runs tomorrow morning from regional and global ensembles will refine the timing of any showers and final temperature guidance ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions