Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日華沙的最低溫度？
8月30日華沙的最低溫度？
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
$2,260 交易量
$2,260 交易量
2026-08-30
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
99%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
9°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
$2,260 交易量
$2,260 交易量
2026-08-30
9°C or below
$271 交易量
<1%
10°C
$170 交易量
2%
11°C
$108 交易量
99%
12°C
$346 交易量
<1%
13°C
$349 交易量
<1%
14°C
$130 交易量
<1%
15°C
$351 交易量
<1%
16°C
$20 交易量
<1%
17°C
$5 交易量
<1%
18°C
$305 交易量
<1%
19°C or higher
$205 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,260結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,260結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTraders assign a 99% implied probability to an 11°C low in Warsaw on August 30 because real-time observations from official meteorological stations and numerical weather prediction models show overnight radiational cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds reaching that threshold by early morning. This aligns with current surface pressure patterns around 1014 hPa and dew points supporting efficient heat loss without significant advection of warmer air. The near-certainty reflects converging model consensus and live station data confirming the minimum. A realistic challenge would require rapid cloud build-up or increased wind speeds that limit further cooling before the daily minimum is recorded, though such shifts appear unlikely given the established synoptic setup.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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