Current forecasts from models such as GFS and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C on September 1 in Warsaw, driven by west-to-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a weakening front, combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread in overnight lows due to variable timing of any scattered showers and cloud cover, which can suppress or enhance cooling by several degrees. Historical early-September baselines average around 11–13°C for minima, but the current pattern favors values above that threshold. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of this ensemble uncertainty and potential last-minute forecast shifts before resolution, with lower-temperature bins priced higher amid residual model divergence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日華沙的最低溫度？
9月1日華沙的最低溫度？
12°C or below 37%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
17°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
12°C or below
37%
13°C
9%
14°C
20%
15°C
30%
16°C
28%
17°C
26%
18°C
2%
19°C
18%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
8%
12°C or below 37%
15°C 30%
16°C 28%
17°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
12°C or below
$49 交易量
37%
13°C
$0 交易量
9%
14°C
$0 交易量
20%
15°C
$0 交易量
30%
16°C
$0 交易量
28%
17°C
$0 交易量
26%
18°C
$0 交易量
2%
19°C
$0 交易量
18%
20°C
$10 交易量
8%
21°C
$5 交易量
8%
22°C or higher
$225 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models such as GFS and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C on September 1 in Warsaw, driven by west-to-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a weakening front, combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread in overnight lows due to variable timing of any scattered showers and cloud cover, which can suppress or enhance cooling by several degrees. Historical early-September baselines average around 11–13°C for minima, but the current pattern favors values above that threshold. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of this ensemble uncertainty and potential last-minute forecast shifts before resolution, with lower-temperature bins priced higher amid residual model divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$289結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from models such as GFS and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C on September 1 in Warsaw, driven by west-to-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a weakening front, combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread in overnight lows due to variable timing of any scattered showers and cloud cover, which can suppress or enhance cooling by several degrees. Historical early-September baselines average around 11–13°C for minima, but the current pattern favors values above that threshold. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of this ensemble uncertainty and potential last-minute forecast shifts before resolution, with lower-temperature bins priced higher amid residual model divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$289結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from models such as GFS and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C on September 1 in Warsaw, driven by west-to-northwesterly flow advecting cooler maritime air behind a weakening front, combined with moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Recent model runs show modest spread in overnight lows due to variable timing of any scattered showers and cloud cover, which can suppress or enhance cooling by several degrees. Historical early-September baselines average around 11–13°C for minima, but the current pattern favors values above that threshold. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of this ensemble uncertainty and potential last-minute forecast shifts before resolution, with lower-temperature bins priced higher amid residual model divergence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions