The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Rob Menendez secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 69 percent of the primary vote in June, while no Republican candidate qualified for the ballot, leaving only minor-party or independent options. This structural advantage, combined with the absence of competitive opposition and limited recent polling shifts, sustains the implied probability near 94-95 percent. A credible late challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national wave altering local turnout patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$14,918 交易量
$14,918 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
6%
$14,918 交易量
$14,918 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$9,427 交易量
95%
共和黨
$5,491 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Rob Menendez secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 69 percent of the primary vote in June, while no Republican candidate qualified for the ballot, leaving only minor-party or independent options. This structural advantage, combined with the absence of competitive opposition and limited recent polling shifts, sustains the implied probability near 94-95 percent. A credible late challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national wave altering local turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$14,918結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Rob Menendez secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 69 percent of the primary vote in June, while no Republican candidate qualified for the ballot, leaving only minor-party or independent options. This structural advantage, combined with the absence of competitive opposition and limited recent polling shifts, sustains the implied probability near 94-95 percent. A credible late challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national wave altering local turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$14,918結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThe district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Rob Menendez secured the Democratic nomination with roughly 69 percent of the primary vote in June, while no Republican candidate qualified for the ballot, leaving only minor-party or independent options. This structural advantage, combined with the absence of competitive opposition and limited recent polling shifts, sustains the implied probability near 94-95 percent. A credible late challenge would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national wave altering local turnout patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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