Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$20,764 交易量
$20,764 交易量
2026-11-03
艾莎·瓦哈布
84%
梅利莎·赫南德茲
15%
$20,764 交易量
$20,764 交易量
2026-11-03
艾莎·瓦哈布
$12,630 交易量
84%
梅利莎·赫南德茲
$8,133 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
交易量
$20,764結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$20,764結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETAisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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