The 2026 Nevada Secretary of State race remains tightly contested between incumbent Democrat Cisco Aguilar and Republican Jim Marchant, a rematch of their narrow 2022 contest. Traders see limited separation due to Nevada’s competitive political environment, where the office oversees elections, voter rolls, and business filings. Aguilar emphasizes safeguards for mail ballots and election infrastructure, while Marchant advocates stricter verification measures and has raised concerns about existing systems. Recent federal subpoenas and voter-roll inquiries have kept election administration in focus without shifting consensus. With the November 3 general election approaching, factors such as turnout patterns in Clark and Washoe counties, candidate debates, or additional state-level policy announcements could alter implied probabilities in either direction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
西斯科·阿吉拉爾(民主黨)
47%

吉姆·馬錢特(共和黨)
47%

西斯科·阿吉拉爾(民主黨)
47%

吉姆·馬錢特(共和黨)
47%
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
市場開放時間: Sep 4, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
The 2026 Nevada Secretary of State race remains tightly contested between incumbent Democrat Cisco Aguilar and Republican Jim Marchant, a rematch of their narrow 2022 contest. Traders see limited separation due to Nevada’s competitive political environment, where the office oversees elections, voter rolls, and business filings. Aguilar emphasizes safeguards for mail ballots and election infrastructure, while Marchant advocates stricter verification measures and has raised concerns about existing systems. Recent federal subpoenas and voter-roll inquiries have kept election administration in focus without shifting consensus. With the November 3 general election approaching, factors such as turnout patterns in Clark and Washoe counties, candidate debates, or additional state-level policy announcements could alter implied probabilities in either direction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions