Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California’s 45th congressional district. The seat, which Tran flipped by fewer than 700 votes in 2024, carries a modest Democratic lean under current partisan voting indexes and registration data, with Democrats holding an edge among voters. Forecasters from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Tran’s incumbency, substantial fundraising lead, and consolidated party support following redistricting adjustments. The Republican nominee trails significantly in campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic-leaning voters outnumber Republicans. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout, shifts among Vietnamese-American or Latino communities, or national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$30,236 交易量
$30,236 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
91%
共和黨
8%
$30,236 交易量
$30,236 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$16,968 交易量
91%
共和黨
$13,267 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California’s 45th congressional district. The seat, which Tran flipped by fewer than 700 votes in 2024, carries a modest Democratic lean under current partisan voting indexes and registration data, with Democrats holding an edge among voters. Forecasters from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Tran’s incumbency, substantial fundraising lead, and consolidated party support following redistricting adjustments. The Republican nominee trails significantly in campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic-leaning voters outnumber Republicans. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout, shifts among Vietnamese-American or Latino communities, or national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$30,236結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California’s 45th congressional district. The seat, which Tran flipped by fewer than 700 votes in 2024, carries a modest Democratic lean under current partisan voting indexes and registration data, with Democrats holding an edge among voters. Forecasters from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Tran’s incumbency, substantial fundraising lead, and consolidated party support following redistricting adjustments. The Republican nominee trails significantly in campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic-leaning voters outnumber Republicans. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout, shifts among Vietnamese-American or Latino communities, or national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,236結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority and faces Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California’s 45th congressional district. The seat, which Tran flipped by fewer than 700 votes in 2024, carries a modest Democratic lean under current partisan voting indexes and registration data, with Democrats holding an edge among voters. Forecasters from outlets including the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting Tran’s incumbency, substantial fundraising lead, and consolidated party support following redistricting adjustments. The Republican nominee trails significantly in campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic-leaning voters outnumber Republicans. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout, shifts among Vietnamese-American or Latino communities, or national political realignments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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