**Ben-Gvir’s firm rejection of a renewed alliance with Smotrich, combined with approaching list-submission deadlines, underpins trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will run separately in the October 27, 2026 Knesset election.** Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly described any joint list as “final and complete,” citing differing voter bases and arguing that a merger would shrink Otzma Yehudit’s seat total. Netanyahu’s late-August appeals for unity to prevent right-wing vote fragmentation have not changed this stance. Recent polls show RZP projected below the 3.25% threshold when running alone—especially with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from overlapping religious-nationalist voters—while Otzma Yehudit retains stronger standalone support. Smotrich has pursued alternative technical-bloc talks, including with Zehut’s Moshe Feiglin. With candidate lists due in early September and no agreement in place despite mediation efforts, the market’s “No” pricing at 83.5% reflects the current impasse and Ben-Gvir’s public position.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
17% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
是
17% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir’s firm rejection of a renewed alliance with Smotrich, combined with approaching list-submission deadlines, underpins trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will run separately in the October 27, 2026 Knesset election.**
Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly described any joint list as “final and complete,” citing differing voter bases and arguing that a merger would shrink Otzma Yehudit’s seat total. Netanyahu’s late-August appeals for unity to prevent right-wing vote fragmentation have not changed this stance. Recent polls show RZP projected below the 3.25% threshold when running alone—especially with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from overlapping religious-nationalist voters—while Otzma Yehudit retains stronger standalone support. Smotrich has pursued alternative technical-bloc talks, including with Zehut’s Moshe Feiglin. With candidate lists due in early September and no agreement in place despite mediation efforts, the market’s “No” pricing at 83.5% reflects the current impasse and Ben-Gvir’s public position.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$3,416結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETElections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir’s firm rejection of a renewed alliance with Smotrich, combined with approaching list-submission deadlines, underpins trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will run separately in the October 27, 2026 Knesset election.**
Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly described any joint list as “final and complete,” citing differing voter bases and arguing that a merger would shrink Otzma Yehudit’s seat total. Netanyahu’s late-August appeals for unity to prevent right-wing vote fragmentation have not changed this stance. Recent polls show RZP projected below the 3.25% threshold when running alone—especially with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from overlapping religious-nationalist voters—while Otzma Yehudit retains stronger standalone support. Smotrich has pursued alternative technical-bloc talks, including with Zehut’s Moshe Feiglin. With candidate lists due in early September and no agreement in place despite mediation efforts, the market’s “No” pricing at 83.5% reflects the current impasse and Ben-Gvir’s public position.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
交易量
$3,416結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET**Ben-Gvir’s firm rejection of a renewed alliance with Smotrich, combined with approaching list-submission deadlines, underpins trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will run separately in the October 27, 2026 Knesset election.** Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly described any joint list as “final and complete,” citing differing voter bases and arguing that a merger would shrink Otzma Yehudit’s seat total. Netanyahu’s late-August appeals for unity to prevent right-wing vote fragmentation have not changed this stance. Recent polls show RZP projected below the 3.25% threshold when running alone—especially with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from overlapping religious-nationalist voters—while Otzma Yehudit retains stronger standalone support. Smotrich has pursued alternative technical-bloc talks, including with Zehut’s Moshe Feiglin. With candidate lists due in early September and no agreement in place despite mediation efforts, the market’s “No” pricing at 83.5% reflects the current impasse and Ben-Gvir’s public position.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions