**Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that the US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement will not enter into force in 2026.** The 123 agreement, signed in July 2026 by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, was transmitted to Congress in late August for the required 90-session-day review under the Atomic Energy Act. This timeline, combined with procedural steps, makes completion before year-end uncertain even without additional hurdles. President Trump has stated that the deal will advance only if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords and normalizes relations with Israel. Saudi officials have consistently linked any such step to a credible path toward a Palestinian state, a precondition that remains unmet. This linkage has placed the agreement in diplomatic suspension, with no resolution reported through early September 2026. The pact includes a bilateral safeguards framework and a two-year joint study on uranium enrichment economics rather than immediate consent for fuel-cycle activities. Congressional review could produce a disapproval resolution, modification demands, or inaction, but the Abraham Accords contingency represents the dominant near-term obstacle. Without progress on that front or accelerated procedural clearance, the deal is unlikely to satisfy the conditions for entry into force before the end of 2026.