Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show stalled negotiations and persistent non-compliance rather than any commitment to permanent limits. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a 60-day framework for talks on downblending Iran's stockpile under IAEA supervision and sanctions relief, yet Iran has blocked inspectors from verifying its near-weapons-grade material for 15 months following 2025 strikes on its facilities. On September 7, the United States escalated by proposing an IAEA board referral to the UN Security Council, underscoring unresolved disputes over access and enrichment capabilities. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden bilateral concessions or verified inspection breakthroughs before month-end, though current positions make such outcomes improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$64,698 交易量
$64,698 交易量
2026-09-30
是
2% 機率
$64,698 交易量
$64,698 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show stalled negotiations and persistent non-compliance rather than any commitment to permanent limits. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a 60-day framework for talks on downblending Iran's stockpile under IAEA supervision and sanctions relief, yet Iran has blocked inspectors from verifying its near-weapons-grade material for 15 months following 2025 strikes on its facilities. On September 7, the United States escalated by proposing an IAEA board referral to the UN Security Council, underscoring unresolved disputes over access and enrichment capabilities. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden bilateral concessions or verified inspection breakthroughs before month-end, though current positions make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
交易量
$64,698結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show stalled negotiations and persistent non-compliance rather than any commitment to permanent limits. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a 60-day framework for talks on downblending Iran's stockpile under IAEA supervision and sanctions relief, yet Iran has blocked inspectors from verifying its near-weapons-grade material for 15 months following 2025 strikes on its facilities. On September 7, the United States escalated by proposing an IAEA board referral to the UN Security Council, underscoring unresolved disputes over access and enrichment capabilities. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden bilateral concessions or verified inspection breakthroughs before month-end, though current positions make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$64,698結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETTraders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic developments show stalled negotiations and persistent non-compliance rather than any commitment to permanent limits. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding established a 60-day framework for talks on downblending Iran's stockpile under IAEA supervision and sanctions relief, yet Iran has blocked inspectors from verifying its near-weapons-grade material for 15 months following 2025 strikes on its facilities. On September 7, the United States escalated by proposing an IAEA board referral to the UN Security Council, underscoring unresolved disputes over access and enrichment capabilities. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden bilateral concessions or verified inspection breakthroughs before month-end, though current positions make such outcomes improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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