**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.** Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於20-39 62%
40-59 17%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
最新
$13,861 交易量
最新
$13,861 交易量
2026-09-06
<20
14%
20-39
62%
40-59
17%
60-79
7%
80+
1%
20-39 62%
40-59 17%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
最新
$13,861 交易量
最新
$13,861 交易量
2026-09-06
<20
$682 交易量
14%
20-39
$11,684 交易量
62%
40-59
$1,025 交易量
17%
60-79
$230 交易量
7%
80+
$240 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.**
Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$13,861結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.**
Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$13,861結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET**Geopolitical tensions and elevated war-risk premiums continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around the 20-39 bucket at 62% implied probability.** Ongoing Iran-U.S. frictions, including Iranian blacklisting of 45 vessels, stalled Iran-Oman corridor negotiations, and persistent IRGC enforcement of unilateral routing, have kept visible AIS transits and open commercial movements at a small fraction of the pre-2026 baseline of roughly 85–130 vessels daily. Recent Kpler data showed only 121 crossings over the week of August 17–23 amid widespread dark steaming and shuttle operations that lift oil flows modestly (toward 8 million bpd) but leave many movements uncounted or high-risk. War-risk insurance multiples near 40×, stranding of hundreds of vessels, and carrier rerouting further constrain weekly totals, making the 40–59 and higher ranges appear less probable absent rapid diplomatic resolution. Traders are pricing the near-term path as one of continued low, uncertain volume rather than normalization.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions