Russia’s repeated rejection of Ukrainian and Western ceasefire proposals in favor of maximalist demands for full control of Donetsk and other territories has kept formal negotiations on a deep pause since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. As of late August, Kremlin statements emphasized that talks would resume only on Russia’s terms based on battlefield realities, with Russian forces continuing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and no scheduled leader-level engagement before October 31. This sustained impasse underpins the strong trader consensus against a signed deal. A sudden US-mediated breakthrough, major territorial reversals, or direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks could still shift odds, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
是
5% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s repeated rejection of Ukrainian and Western ceasefire proposals in favor of maximalist demands for full control of Donetsk and other territories has kept formal negotiations on a deep pause since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. As of late August, Kremlin statements emphasized that talks would resume only on Russia’s terms based on battlefield realities, with Russian forces continuing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and no scheduled leader-level engagement before October 31. This sustained impasse underpins the strong trader consensus against a signed deal. A sudden US-mediated breakthrough, major territorial reversals, or direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks could still shift odds, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
交易量
$712結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Russia’s repeated rejection of Ukrainian and Western ceasefire proposals in favor of maximalist demands for full control of Donetsk and other territories has kept formal negotiations on a deep pause since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. As of late August, Kremlin statements emphasized that talks would resume only on Russia’s terms based on battlefield realities, with Russian forces continuing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and no scheduled leader-level engagement before October 31. This sustained impasse underpins the strong trader consensus against a signed deal. A sudden US-mediated breakthrough, major territorial reversals, or direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks could still shift odds, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$712結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETRussia’s repeated rejection of Ukrainian and Western ceasefire proposals in favor of maximalist demands for full control of Donetsk and other territories has kept formal negotiations on a deep pause since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. As of late August, Kremlin statements emphasized that talks would resume only on Russia’s terms based on battlefield realities, with Russian forces continuing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and no scheduled leader-level engagement before October 31. This sustained impasse underpins the strong trader consensus against a signed deal. A sudden US-mediated breakthrough, major territorial reversals, or direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks could still shift odds, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions