Stalled negotiations and persistent military operations continue to shape trader consensus around the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with the “No” outcome priced at 91.5%. Recent form shows both sides maintaining aggressive postures, including drone strikes and air campaigns, without meaningful concessions on territory or security guarantees. Matchup dynamics remain unbalanced by maximalist demands and failed short-term ceasefires, such as those attempted around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in 2026. Official updates confirm no concrete proposals have advanced talks since mid-year efforts in the UAE and Geneva, leaving unresolved issues like NATO alignment and sanctions relief. This sustained deadlock, absent major roster or coaching-style shifts in diplomatic leadership, underpins the strong implied probability against a deal resolving by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
$600,530 交易量
$600,530 交易量
2026-12-31
是
9% 機率
$600,530 交易量
$600,530 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfStalled negotiations and persistent military operations continue to shape trader consensus around the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with the “No” outcome priced at 91.5%. Recent form shows both sides maintaining aggressive postures, including drone strikes and air campaigns, without meaningful concessions on territory or security guarantees. Matchup dynamics remain unbalanced by maximalist demands and failed short-term ceasefires, such as those attempted around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in 2026. Official updates confirm no concrete proposals have advanced talks since mid-year efforts in the UAE and Geneva, leaving unresolved issues like NATO alignment and sanctions relief. This sustained deadlock, absent major roster or coaching-style shifts in diplomatic leadership, underpins the strong implied probability against a deal resolving by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
市場開放時間： Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
交易量
$600,530結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfStalled negotiations and persistent military operations continue to shape trader consensus around the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with the “No” outcome priced at 91.5%. Recent form shows both sides maintaining aggressive postures, including drone strikes and air campaigns, without meaningful concessions on territory or security guarantees. Matchup dynamics remain unbalanced by maximalist demands and failed short-term ceasefires, such as those attempted around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in 2026. Official updates confirm no concrete proposals have advanced talks since mid-year efforts in the UAE and Geneva, leaving unresolved issues like NATO alignment and sanctions relief. This sustained deadlock, absent major roster or coaching-style shifts in diplomatic leadership, underpins the strong implied probability against a deal resolving by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
交易量
$600,530結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled negotiations and persistent military operations continue to shape trader consensus around the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with the “No” outcome priced at 91.5%. Recent form shows both sides maintaining aggressive postures, including drone strikes and air campaigns, without meaningful concessions on territory or security guarantees. Matchup dynamics remain unbalanced by maximalist demands and failed short-term ceasefires, such as those attempted around Orthodox Easter and Victory Day in 2026. Official updates confirm no concrete proposals have advanced talks since mid-year efforts in the UAE and Geneva, leaving unresolved issues like NATO alignment and sanctions relief. This sustained deadlock, absent major roster or coaching-style shifts in diplomatic leadership, underpins the strong implied probability against a deal resolving by year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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