Recent diplomatic signals show limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. On August 14, Russia rejected proposals for even a limited Black Sea ceasefire, citing no basis for temporary measures that would benefit the other side. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to the United States on August 12 amid stalled trilateral talks. Earlier 2026 efforts, including U.S.-brokered trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus a short May truce with prisoner exchanges, collapsed over core disputes involving territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and sanctions. Russia has repeatedly declined full or unconditional halts while maintaining frontline operations, leaving trader consensus on an agreement by December 31 at low levels pending breakthroughs on those sticking points.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$5,918,749 交易量
2026-10-31
10月31日
11%
8月31日
3%
12月31日
25%
$5,918,749 交易量
10月31日
$848,243 交易量
11%
8月31日
$391,529 交易量
3%
12月31日
$2,141,645 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic signals show limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. On August 14, Russia rejected proposals for even a limited Black Sea ceasefire, citing no basis for temporary measures that would benefit the other side. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to the United States on August 12 amid stalled trilateral talks. Earlier 2026 efforts, including U.S.-brokered trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus a short May truce with prisoner exchanges, collapsed over core disputes involving territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and sanctions. Russia has repeatedly declined full or unconditional halts while maintaining frontline operations, leaving trader consensus on an agreement by December 31 at low levels pending breakthroughs on those sticking points.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$5,918,749結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic signals show limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. On August 14, Russia rejected proposals for even a limited Black Sea ceasefire, citing no basis for temporary measures that would benefit the other side. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to the United States on August 12 amid stalled trilateral talks. Earlier 2026 efforts, including U.S.-brokered trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus a short May truce with prisoner exchanges, collapsed over core disputes involving territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and sanctions. Russia has repeatedly declined full or unconditional halts while maintaining frontline operations, leaving trader consensus on an agreement by December 31 at low levels pending breakthroughs on those sticking points.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,918,749結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic signals show limited progress toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. On August 14, Russia rejected proposals for even a limited Black Sea ceasefire, citing no basis for temporary measures that would benefit the other side. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to the United States on August 12 amid stalled trilateral talks. Earlier 2026 efforts, including U.S.-brokered trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus a short May truce with prisoner exchanges, collapsed over core disputes involving territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and sanctions. Russia has repeatedly declined full or unconditional halts while maintaining frontline operations, leaving trader consensus on an agreement by December 31 at low levels pending breakthroughs on those sticking points.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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