Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$208,395 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
1%
$208,395 交易量
9月30日
$2,554 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$208,395結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$208,395結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETOngoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes near Hengam in July 2026 and on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have kept trader attention on Iranian island defenses without producing verified shifts in administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions across its Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while asserting sovereignty, amid a broader conflict that began in February. Hengam forms part of Iran's curved defensive line alongside Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz, enabling oversight of shipping routes. No official statements or credible reporting confirm occupation, amphibious seizure, or handover to another authority. Market-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late 2026 dates remain very low, reflecting the distinction between temporary strikes and sustained changes in effective governance. Further escalation or negotiated pauses could influence outcomes before resolution windows close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions