U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, focused on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, form the main driver of sentiment for this market. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg in recent months, yet credible reporting shows no change in Iranian control over Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost recognized under prior Iran-Saudi agreements. Trader-implied probabilities remain very low for any loss of sovereignty by late 2026 dates, reflecting the absence of ground operations or seizures specific to Farsi amid broader aerial and naval actions. Key variables include potential escalation in conflict, diplomatic negotiations, or shifts in U.S. strategy that could alter control before resolution triggers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$197,515 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
1%
$197,515 交易量
9月30日
$20,245 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, focused on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, form the main driver of sentiment for this market. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg in recent months, yet credible reporting shows no change in Iranian control over Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost recognized under prior Iran-Saudi agreements. Trader-implied probabilities remain very low for any loss of sovereignty by late 2026 dates, reflecting the absence of ground operations or seizures specific to Farsi amid broader aerial and naval actions. Key variables include potential escalation in conflict, diplomatic negotiations, or shifts in U.S. strategy that could alter control before resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$197,515結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, focused on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, form the main driver of sentiment for this market. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg in recent months, yet credible reporting shows no change in Iranian control over Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost recognized under prior Iran-Saudi agreements. Trader-implied probabilities remain very low for any loss of sovereignty by late 2026 dates, reflecting the absence of ground operations or seizures specific to Farsi amid broader aerial and naval actions. Key variables include potential escalation in conflict, diplomatic negotiations, or shifts in U.S. strategy that could alter control before resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$197,515結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETU.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, focused on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, form the main driver of sentiment for this market. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg in recent months, yet credible reporting shows no change in Iranian control over Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost recognized under prior Iran-Saudi agreements. Trader-implied probabilities remain very low for any loss of sovereignty by late 2026 dates, reflecting the absence of ground operations or seizures specific to Farsi amid broader aerial and naval actions. Key variables include potential escalation in conflict, diplomatic negotiations, or shifts in U.S. strategy that could alter control before resolution triggers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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