Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and IRGC enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent daily counts averaging just 4–10 AIS-visible vessels versus the pre-2026 baseline of 120–140. Persistent attacks, route restrictions, and high war-risk insurance premiums have suppressed commercial tanker and bulk carrier movements, while dark transits and sanctions evasion add measurement uncertainty to weekly aggregates. Market-implied probabilities cluster around the lowest bins because ongoing kinetic risks and Iranian control over corridors make a sustained rebound to even moderate volumes improbable before mid-September. Traders weigh potential last-minute de-escalation against further strikes or IRGC turn-back orders as the key swing factors that could shift the distribution across the 20–39 range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於20 23%
25-29 21%
35-39 19%
20-24 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-13
少於20
23%
20-24
18%
25-29
21%
30-34
14%
35-39
19%
40艘以上
10%
少於20 23%
25-29 21%
35-39 19%
20-24 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-13
少於20
$712 交易量
23%
20-24
$185 交易量
18%
25-29
$264 交易量
21%
30-34
$207 交易量
14%
35-39
$107 交易量
19%
40艘以上
$233 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and IRGC enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent daily counts averaging just 4–10 AIS-visible vessels versus the pre-2026 baseline of 120–140. Persistent attacks, route restrictions, and high war-risk insurance premiums have suppressed commercial tanker and bulk carrier movements, while dark transits and sanctions evasion add measurement uncertainty to weekly aggregates. Market-implied probabilities cluster around the lowest bins because ongoing kinetic risks and Iranian control over corridors make a sustained rebound to even moderate volumes improbable before mid-September. Traders weigh potential last-minute de-escalation against further strikes or IRGC turn-back orders as the key swing factors that could shift the distribution across the 20–39 range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
交易量
$1,709結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran military exchanges and IRGC enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent daily counts averaging just 4–10 AIS-visible vessels versus the pre-2026 baseline of 120–140. Persistent attacks, route restrictions, and high war-risk insurance premiums have suppressed commercial tanker and bulk carrier movements, while dark transits and sanctions evasion add measurement uncertainty to weekly aggregates. Market-implied probabilities cluster around the lowest bins because ongoing kinetic risks and Iranian control over corridors make a sustained rebound to even moderate volumes improbable before mid-September. Traders weigh potential last-minute de-escalation against further strikes or IRGC turn-back orders as the key swing factors that could shift the distribution across the 20–39 range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$1,709結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETEscalating US-Iran military exchanges and IRGC enforcement actions have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained, with recent daily counts averaging just 4–10 AIS-visible vessels versus the pre-2026 baseline of 120–140. Persistent attacks, route restrictions, and high war-risk insurance premiums have suppressed commercial tanker and bulk carrier movements, while dark transits and sanctions evasion add measurement uncertainty to weekly aggregates. Market-implied probabilities cluster around the lowest bins because ongoing kinetic risks and Iranian control over corridors make a sustained rebound to even moderate volumes improbable before mid-September. Traders weigh potential last-minute de-escalation against further strikes or IRGC turn-back orders as the key swing factors that could shift the distribution across the 20–39 range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions