**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.** Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage. With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？
9月7日當週有多少艘星艦經過曼德海峽？
170-189 31%
190-209 25%
210-229 24%
230艘以上 15%
最新
$35,434 交易量
最新
$35,434 交易量
2026-09-13
少於170
10%
170-189
31%
190-209
25%
210-229
24%
230艘以上
15%
170-189 31%
190-209 25%
210-229 24%
230艘以上 15%
最新
$35,434 交易量
最新
$35,434 交易量
2026-09-13
少於170
$13,723 交易量
10%
170-189
$140 交易量
31%
190-209
$201 交易量
25%
210-229
$170 交易量
24%
230艘以上
$21,199 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.**
Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage.
With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$35,434結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.**
Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage.
With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$35,434結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade declared July 20, combined with persistent attack risks, continues to suppress transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at levels well below pre-2024 norms.** Recent data show weekly commodity and cargo vessel crossings stabilizing around 200–300 in August after an initial 24% drop post-blockade, with daily commodity traffic fluctuating between roughly 18–37 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums (often 0.75–1%+ of hull value) and selective diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Tanker flows have been particularly constrained, recently averaging under 3 per day on some measures and down sharply year-over-year, while certain Chinese-operated or shadow-fleet vessels have secured passage. With the week of September 7 beginning in days and no major de-escalation or new incidents reported in the immediate window, trader consensus clusters tightly around the 170–209 range. The narrow 5-percentage-point spread between the top two bins reflects uncertainty over short-term routing decisions, potential last-minute attack responses, and the balance between stabilized lower-volume traffic versus any incremental rebound in non-tanker segments. Higher or lower outcomes remain less favored given the entrenched risk environment and historical post-July patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions