Recent Houthi strikes, including the lethal August 11 attack on the Tihamah and the August 24 missile hit on the Saudi-linked Amzan tanker, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, capping Bab el-Mandeb volumes despite major carriers resuming Suez services. Container operators such as MSC and Maersk have committed east-west loops through the strait, supporting a modest rebound toward 200–270 weekly transits in recent AIS and Lloyd’s List data, while tanker flows remain suppressed by case-by-case insurance and Saudi tonnage restrictions. These offsetting forces—rising commercial incentives for the shorter route versus persistent security costs and dark-transit behavior—keep the 170–209 ranges tightly contested, with outcomes hinging on whether further incidents materialize before week-end or carriers maintain conditional routing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於190-209 41%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 11%
最新
$24,336 交易量
最新
$24,336 交易量
2026-09-06
少於170
6%
170-189
33%
190-209
41%
210-229
11%
230+
14%
190-209 41%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 11%
最新
$24,336 交易量
最新
$24,336 交易量
2026-09-06
少於170
$116 交易量
6%
170-189
$116 交易量
33%
190-209
$2,069 交易量
41%
210-229
$8,983 交易量
11%
230+
$13,051 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi strikes, including the lethal August 11 attack on the Tihamah and the August 24 missile hit on the Saudi-linked Amzan tanker, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, capping Bab el-Mandeb volumes despite major carriers resuming Suez services. Container operators such as MSC and Maersk have committed east-west loops through the strait, supporting a modest rebound toward 200–270 weekly transits in recent AIS and Lloyd’s List data, while tanker flows remain suppressed by case-by-case insurance and Saudi tonnage restrictions. These offsetting forces—rising commercial incentives for the shorter route versus persistent security costs and dark-transit behavior—keep the 170–209 ranges tightly contested, with outcomes hinging on whether further incidents materialize before week-end or carriers maintain conditional routing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$24,336結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi strikes, including the lethal August 11 attack on the Tihamah and the August 24 missile hit on the Saudi-linked Amzan tanker, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, capping Bab el-Mandeb volumes despite major carriers resuming Suez services. Container operators such as MSC and Maersk have committed east-west loops through the strait, supporting a modest rebound toward 200–270 weekly transits in recent AIS and Lloyd’s List data, while tanker flows remain suppressed by case-by-case insurance and Saudi tonnage restrictions. These offsetting forces—rising commercial incentives for the shorter route versus persistent security costs and dark-transit behavior—keep the 170–209 ranges tightly contested, with outcomes hinging on whether further incidents materialize before week-end or carriers maintain conditional routing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$24,336結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRecent Houthi strikes, including the lethal August 11 attack on the Tihamah and the August 24 missile hit on the Saudi-linked Amzan tanker, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, capping Bab el-Mandeb volumes despite major carriers resuming Suez services. Container operators such as MSC and Maersk have committed east-west loops through the strait, supporting a modest rebound toward 200–270 weekly transits in recent AIS and Lloyd’s List data, while tanker flows remain suppressed by case-by-case insurance and Saudi tonnage restrictions. These offsetting forces—rising commercial incentives for the shorter route versus persistent security costs and dark-transit behavior—keep the 170–209 ranges tightly contested, with outcomes hinging on whether further incidents materialize before week-end or carriers maintain conditional routing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions