Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including a persistent U.S. blockade and Iranian assertions of control over transit lanes, continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel transits averaging just 3–15 as of late August 2026—down over 90% from pre-crisis baselines near 85–140—driven by 40x war-risk insurance premiums, mine threats, and route uncertainty that deter most operators. Market-implied odds clustering on the 0–5 and 5–10 bins reflect trader consensus that these barriers are likely to hold through September-end absent a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran or Iran-Oman talks, though limited dark transits or partial diplomatic easing could nudge volumes modestly higher. Key swing factors include any shift in sanctions enforcement or naval facilitation before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 17%
25-30 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
0-5
32%
5-10
29%
10-15
17%
15-20
5%
20-25
6%
25-30
11%
30+
9%
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 17%
25-30 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
0-5
$133 交易量
32%
5-10
$220 交易量
29%
10-15
$224 交易量
17%
15-20
$431 交易量
5%
20-25
$45 交易量
6%
25-30
$4,032 交易量
11%
30+
$52 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including a persistent U.S. blockade and Iranian assertions of control over transit lanes, continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel transits averaging just 3–15 as of late August 2026—down over 90% from pre-crisis baselines near 85–140—driven by 40x war-risk insurance premiums, mine threats, and route uncertainty that deter most operators. Market-implied odds clustering on the 0–5 and 5–10 bins reflect trader consensus that these barriers are likely to hold through September-end absent a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran or Iran-Oman talks, though limited dark transits or partial diplomatic easing could nudge volumes modestly higher. Key swing factors include any shift in sanctions enforcement or naval facilitation before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
交易量
$5,137結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including a persistent U.S. blockade and Iranian assertions of control over transit lanes, continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel transits averaging just 3–15 as of late August 2026—down over 90% from pre-crisis baselines near 85–140—driven by 40x war-risk insurance premiums, mine threats, and route uncertainty that deter most operators. Market-implied odds clustering on the 0–5 and 5–10 bins reflect trader consensus that these barriers are likely to hold through September-end absent a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran or Iran-Oman talks, though limited dark transits or partial diplomatic easing could nudge volumes modestly higher. Key swing factors include any shift in sanctions enforcement or naval facilitation before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$5,137結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETOngoing geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including a persistent U.S. blockade and Iranian assertions of control over transit lanes, continue to suppress commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data show daily commodity vessel transits averaging just 3–15 as of late August 2026—down over 90% from pre-crisis baselines near 85–140—driven by 40x war-risk insurance premiums, mine threats, and route uncertainty that deter most operators. Market-implied odds clustering on the 0–5 and 5–10 bins reflect trader consensus that these barriers are likely to hold through September-end absent a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran or Iran-Oman talks, though limited dark transits or partial diplomatic easing could nudge volumes modestly higher. Key swing factors include any shift in sanctions enforcement or naval facilitation before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions