Recent negotiations between Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and Zehut chairman Moshe Feiglin on a technical alliance or joint list have driven trader sentiment for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, with lists due by early September. RZP’s polling near or below the 3.25% threshold, partly due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party, has prompted consolidation talks, backed in principle by Benjamin Netanyahu to protect the right-wing bloc. Zehut’s separate arrangement with Michael Ben-Ari and Otzma Yehudit’s decision to run independently add complexity. The 52% implied probability reflects ongoing but inconclusive discussions over candidate slots and alliance terms, balanced against the short timeline and risk that no agreement materializes before the Central Elections Committee deadline. Confirmation of a combined list would raise the probability sharply, while stalled talks or separate submissions would lower it.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
65% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
是
65% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent negotiations between Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and Zehut chairman Moshe Feiglin on a technical alliance or joint list have driven trader sentiment for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, with lists due by early September. RZP’s polling near or below the 3.25% threshold, partly due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party, has prompted consolidation talks, backed in principle by Benjamin Netanyahu to protect the right-wing bloc. Zehut’s separate arrangement with Michael Ben-Ari and Otzma Yehudit’s decision to run independently add complexity. The 52% implied probability reflects ongoing but inconclusive discussions over candidate slots and alliance terms, balanced against the short timeline and risk that no agreement materializes before the Central Elections Committee deadline. Confirmation of a combined list would raise the probability sharply, while stalled talks or separate submissions would lower it.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$303結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETElections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent negotiations between Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and Zehut chairman Moshe Feiglin on a technical alliance or joint list have driven trader sentiment for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, with lists due by early September. RZP’s polling near or below the 3.25% threshold, partly due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party, has prompted consolidation talks, backed in principle by Benjamin Netanyahu to protect the right-wing bloc. Zehut’s separate arrangement with Michael Ben-Ari and Otzma Yehudit’s decision to run independently add complexity. The 52% implied probability reflects ongoing but inconclusive discussions over candidate slots and alliance terms, balanced against the short timeline and risk that no agreement materializes before the Central Elections Committee deadline. Confirmation of a combined list would raise the probability sharply, while stalled talks or separate submissions would lower it.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
交易量
$303結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRecent negotiations between Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and Zehut chairman Moshe Feiglin on a technical alliance or joint list have driven trader sentiment for the October 27, 2026 Knesset election, with lists due by early September. RZP’s polling near or below the 3.25% threshold, partly due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party, has prompted consolidation talks, backed in principle by Benjamin Netanyahu to protect the right-wing bloc. Zehut’s separate arrangement with Michael Ben-Ari and Otzma Yehudit’s decision to run independently add complexity. The 52% implied probability reflects ongoing but inconclusive discussions over candidate slots and alliance terms, balanced against the short timeline and risk that no agreement materializes before the Central Elections Committee deadline. Confirmation of a combined list would raise the probability sharply, while stalled talks or separate submissions would lower it.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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