Israel's Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing a full term, triggering general elections on October 27. Post-election government formation requires the president to designate a prime minister, coalition negotiations among fragmented parties, and a subsequent Knesset vote of confidence to seat a new cabinet. Current polling shows neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the main opposition reaching the 61-seat majority threshold without complex alliances, including potential Arab parties, extending typical formation timelines. With roughly two months between the vote and year-end, historical patterns of protracted negotiations and recent coalition instability increase the likelihood that no confidence vote occurs by December 31. Trader consensus on "No" at 60% reflects these structural barriers to rapid resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於40% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
40% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing a full term, triggering general elections on October 27. Post-election government formation requires the president to designate a prime minister, coalition negotiations among fragmented parties, and a subsequent Knesset vote of confidence to seat a new cabinet. Current polling shows neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the main opposition reaching the 61-seat majority threshold without complex alliances, including potential Arab parties, extending typical formation timelines. With roughly two months between the vote and year-end, historical patterns of protracted negotiations and recent coalition instability increase the likelihood that no confidence vote occurs by December 31. Trader consensus on "No" at 60% reflects these structural barriers to rapid resolution.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
交易量
$1,499結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing a full term, triggering general elections on October 27. Post-election government formation requires the president to designate a prime minister, coalition negotiations among fragmented parties, and a subsequent Knesset vote of confidence to seat a new cabinet. Current polling shows neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the main opposition reaching the 61-seat majority threshold without complex alliances, including potential Arab parties, extending typical formation timelines. With roughly two months between the vote and year-end, historical patterns of protracted negotiations and recent coalition instability increase the likelihood that no confidence vote occurs by December 31. Trader consensus on "No" at 60% reflects these structural barriers to rapid resolution.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,499結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing a full term, triggering general elections on October 27. Post-election government formation requires the president to designate a prime minister, coalition negotiations among fragmented parties, and a subsequent Knesset vote of confidence to seat a new cabinet. Current polling shows neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the main opposition reaching the 61-seat majority threshold without complex alliances, including potential Arab parties, extending typical formation timelines. With roughly two months between the vote and year-end, historical patterns of protracted negotiations and recent coalition instability increase the likelihood that no confidence vote occurs by December 31. Trader consensus on "No" at 60% reflects these structural barriers to rapid resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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