**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it.** The warrant remains the central legal factor cited in trader discussions, yet probabilities stay low due to consistent U.S. opposition under President Trump, who explicitly stated Netanyahu would not be detained on American soil in any form. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani publicly called for enforcement during the prime minister’s expected September 2026 UN General Assembly visit but acknowledged the city lacks authority, shifting focus to the federal level. Netanyahu’s ongoing domestic corruption trial—now past his testimony phase with judges urging prosecutors to drop the key bribery count—shows no signs of producing an imminent arrest. Traders price near-term enforcement risks at single digits, reflecting the absence of diplomatic or legal catalysts that could override allied protections or Netanyahu’s security arrangements before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$24,704 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
1%
12月31日
6%
$24,704 交易量
9月30日
$18,450 交易量
1%
12月31日
$6,254 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it.** The warrant remains the central legal factor cited in trader discussions, yet probabilities stay low due to consistent U.S. opposition under President Trump, who explicitly stated Netanyahu would not be detained on American soil in any form. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani publicly called for enforcement during the prime minister’s expected September 2026 UN General Assembly visit but acknowledged the city lacks authority, shifting focus to the federal level. Netanyahu’s ongoing domestic corruption trial—now past his testimony phase with judges urging prosecutors to drop the key bribery count—shows no signs of producing an imminent arrest. Traders price near-term enforcement risks at single digits, reflecting the absence of diplomatic or legal catalysts that could override allied protections or Netanyahu’s security arrangements before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
交易量
$24,704結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it.** The warrant remains the central legal factor cited in trader discussions, yet probabilities stay low due to consistent U.S. opposition under President Trump, who explicitly stated Netanyahu would not be detained on American soil in any form. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani publicly called for enforcement during the prime minister’s expected September 2026 UN General Assembly visit but acknowledged the city lacks authority, shifting focus to the federal level. Netanyahu’s ongoing domestic corruption trial—now past his testimony phase with judges urging prosecutors to drop the key bribery count—shows no signs of producing an imminent arrest. Traders price near-term enforcement risks at single digits, reflecting the absence of diplomatic or legal catalysts that could override allied protections or Netanyahu’s security arrangements before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$24,704結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET**Benjamin Netanyahu faces an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it.** The warrant remains the central legal factor cited in trader discussions, yet probabilities stay low due to consistent U.S. opposition under President Trump, who explicitly stated Netanyahu would not be detained on American soil in any form. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani publicly called for enforcement during the prime minister’s expected September 2026 UN General Assembly visit but acknowledged the city lacks authority, shifting focus to the federal level. Netanyahu’s ongoing domestic corruption trial—now past his testimony phase with judges urging prosecutors to drop the key bribery count—shows no signs of producing an imminent arrest. Traders price near-term enforcement risks at single digits, reflecting the absence of diplomatic or legal catalysts that could override allied protections or Netanyahu’s security arrangements before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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