Recent U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced only limited commitments to discuss enrichment limits while preserving Iran's current nuclear status quo. Iranian officials continue to treat domestic uranium enrichment as a non-negotiable red line, rejecting U.S. proposals for zero or near-zero enrichment, facility dismantlement, or full material transfer abroad. IAEA reports confirm Iran's large stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium persists despite facility damage, and talks have repeatedly stalled over verification, sanctions relief, and sunset provisions. These entrenched positions, coupled with Iran's suspension of broader diplomacy at points in 2026, underpin trader consensus that a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
11% 機率
$1,632,416 交易量
$1,632,416 交易量
2026-12-30
是
11% 機率
$1,632,416 交易量
$1,632,416 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced only limited commitments to discuss enrichment limits while preserving Iran's current nuclear status quo. Iranian officials continue to treat domestic uranium enrichment as a non-negotiable red line, rejecting U.S. proposals for zero or near-zero enrichment, facility dismantlement, or full material transfer abroad. IAEA reports confirm Iran's large stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium persists despite facility damage, and talks have repeatedly stalled over verification, sanctions relief, and sunset provisions. These entrenched positions, coupled with Iran's suspension of broader diplomacy at points in 2026, underpin trader consensus that a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$1,632,416結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced only limited commitments to discuss enrichment limits while preserving Iran's current nuclear status quo. Iranian officials continue to treat domestic uranium enrichment as a non-negotiable red line, rejecting U.S. proposals for zero or near-zero enrichment, facility dismantlement, or full material transfer abroad. IAEA reports confirm Iran's large stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium persists despite facility damage, and talks have repeatedly stalled over verification, sanctions relief, and sunset provisions. These entrenched positions, coupled with Iran's suspension of broader diplomacy at points in 2026, underpin trader consensus that a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,632,416結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum that followed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced only limited commitments to discuss enrichment limits while preserving Iran's current nuclear status quo. Iranian officials continue to treat domestic uranium enrichment as a non-negotiable red line, rejecting U.S. proposals for zero or near-zero enrichment, facility dismantlement, or full material transfer abroad. IAEA reports confirm Iran's large stockpile of 60-percent enriched uranium persists despite facility damage, and talks have repeatedly stalled over verification, sanctions relief, and sunset provisions. These entrenched positions, coupled with Iran's suspension of broader diplomacy at points in 2026, underpin trader consensus that a binding agreement to halt enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions