**Jess Wilson leads the market at 64.5% as Liberal Opposition Leader ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election.** Recent DemosAU and Resolve polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred, with Wilson preferred as premier over Ben Carroll by margins such as 43-34. Carroll became Labor leader and premier in late July after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure and weak personal approval ratings; Labor’s primary vote has remained stuck in the mid-20s while One Nation polls near 22-24%, fragmenting the vote without derailing the Coalition’s projected path. Wilson, who took the Liberal leadership in November 2025, has released policies on bail reform, justice, housing supply, and a first-100-days agenda on policing and cost-of-living, sustaining momentum in a contest that polling indicates favors a change of government. Lower-priced outcomes such as Carroll (20.5%), Warren Pickering (11.3%), and Allan (4.3%) reflect Labor’s structural challenges and the limited upside for alternative Labor or One Nation figures under current trends.