Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins between 51–49 and 57–43, with primary votes placing the Coalition and Labor in the mid-to-high 20s and One Nation near 22–24 percent. The Coalition’s position strengthened after Jacinta Allan resigned as Labor premier in late July amid sustained low approval ratings, with Ben Carroll elected unopposed as her successor. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear advantage in preferred premier surveys. One Nation’s primary support fragments the vote but flows preferentially toward the Coalition, supporting projections of a Coalition majority in the Legislative Assembly. Labor’s 12-year incumbency and associated voter fatigue remain central factors in the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.5%
Greens <1%
$10,625 交易量
$10,625 交易量
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
78%
Labor
20%
One Nation
3%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.5%
Greens <1%
$10,625 交易量
$10,625 交易量
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
$6,390 交易量
78%
Labor
$1,749 交易量
20%
One Nation
$2,275 交易量
3%
Greens
$212 交易量
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins between 51–49 and 57–43, with primary votes placing the Coalition and Labor in the mid-to-high 20s and One Nation near 22–24 percent. The Coalition’s position strengthened after Jacinta Allan resigned as Labor premier in late July amid sustained low approval ratings, with Ben Carroll elected unopposed as her successor. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear advantage in preferred premier surveys. One Nation’s primary support fragments the vote but flows preferentially toward the Coalition, supporting projections of a Coalition majority in the Legislative Assembly. Labor’s 12-year incumbency and associated voter fatigue remain central factors in the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$10,625結束日期
2026-11-28市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETThe 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins between 51–49 and 57–43, with primary votes placing the Coalition and Labor in the mid-to-high 20s and One Nation near 22–24 percent. The Coalition’s position strengthened after Jacinta Allan resigned as Labor premier in late July amid sustained low approval ratings, with Ben Carroll elected unopposed as her successor. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear advantage in preferred premier surveys. One Nation’s primary support fragments the vote but flows preferentially toward the Coalition, supporting projections of a Coalition majority in the Legislative Assembly. Labor’s 12-year incumbency and associated voter fatigue remain central factors in the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$10,625結束日期
2026-11-28市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRecent opinion polls for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election show the Liberal–National Coalition leading Labor on two-party preferred margins between 51–49 and 57–43, with primary votes placing the Coalition and Labor in the mid-to-high 20s and One Nation near 22–24 percent. The Coalition’s position strengthened after Jacinta Allan resigned as Labor premier in late July amid sustained low approval ratings, with Ben Carroll elected unopposed as her successor. Coalition leader Jess Wilson maintains a clear advantage in preferred premier surveys. One Nation’s primary support fragments the vote but flows preferentially toward the Coalition, supporting projections of a Coalition majority in the Legislative Assembly. Labor’s 12-year incumbency and associated voter fatigue remain central factors in the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions