Recent polls position the AfD as the clear frontrunner for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026, driving the market's implied probability above 80 percent. Surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap in July and August show the AfD at 36 percent, ahead of the incumbent SPD at 29 percent, with the CDU, Linke, and smaller parties trailing further behind. This gap reflects the AfD's consolidation of support in eastern states, while the SPD-led coalition faces headwinds from declining popularity. Other parties remain below thresholds likely to re-enter the parliament, complicating any anti-AfD majority. Traders weigh these polling trends and coalition arithmetic as the primary influences on outcome probabilities ahead of election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於AfD 85%
SPD 16%
林克黨 <1%
FW <1%
$456,250 交易量
$456,250 交易量
2026-09-19
AfD
85%
SPD
16%
林克黨
<1%
FW
<1%
基民盟
<1%
綠黨
<1%
FDP
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 85%
SPD 16%
林克黨 <1%
FW <1%
$456,250 交易量
$456,250 交易量
2026-09-19
AfD
$80,021 交易量
85%
SPD
$96,548 交易量
16%
林克黨
$27,668 交易量
<1%
FW
$36,709 交易量
<1%
基民盟
$44,445 交易量
<1%
綠黨
$71,444 交易量
<1%
FDP
$77,089 交易量
<1%
BSW
$22,326 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls position the AfD as the clear frontrunner for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026, driving the market's implied probability above 80 percent. Surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap in July and August show the AfD at 36 percent, ahead of the incumbent SPD at 29 percent, with the CDU, Linke, and smaller parties trailing further behind. This gap reflects the AfD's consolidation of support in eastern states, while the SPD-led coalition faces headwinds from declining popularity. Other parties remain below thresholds likely to re-enter the parliament, complicating any anti-AfD majority. Traders weigh these polling trends and coalition arithmetic as the primary influences on outcome probabilities ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$456,250結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls position the AfD as the clear frontrunner for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026, driving the market's implied probability above 80 percent. Surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap in July and August show the AfD at 36 percent, ahead of the incumbent SPD at 29 percent, with the CDU, Linke, and smaller parties trailing further behind. This gap reflects the AfD's consolidation of support in eastern states, while the SPD-led coalition faces headwinds from declining popularity. Other parties remain below thresholds likely to re-enter the parliament, complicating any anti-AfD majority. Traders weigh these polling trends and coalition arithmetic as the primary influences on outcome probabilities ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
交易量
$456,250結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls position the AfD as the clear frontrunner for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election on 20 September 2026, driving the market's implied probability above 80 percent. Surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap in July and August show the AfD at 36 percent, ahead of the incumbent SPD at 29 percent, with the CDU, Linke, and smaller parties trailing further behind. This gap reflects the AfD's consolidation of support in eastern states, while the SPD-led coalition faces headwinds from declining popularity. Other parties remain below thresholds likely to re-enter the parliament, complicating any anti-AfD majority. Traders weigh these polling trends and coalition arithmetic as the primary influences on outcome probabilities ahead of election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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