Magdalena Andersson leads the market at 85.5% because recent opinion polls show her Social Democrats and the broader centre-left bloc holding a roughly 10-point advantage over the incumbent right-wing coalition ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election. Ulf Kristersson, the current prime minister from the Moderates, sits at 11% as polls indicate his four-party arrangement, reliant on Sweden Democrats support, faces a wide deficit with little time left to close the gap. Other listed figures such as Jimmie Åkesson, Ebba Busch, and Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist remain at under 1% each, reflecting limited prospects for alternative coalition outcomes or party leadership shifts. Late-campaign events or turnout variations in key voter groups could still influence final seat distributions and subsequent government formation.