Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 77.3% because recent September 2026 polls from IEP and CIT place his Renovación Popular list first in voter intention, often above 37%, well ahead of Carlos Bruce at 14–32% and Francis Allison near 9–14%. The October 4 election occurs under a structure where López Aliaga, confirmed by the JNE as first regidor after Luis Rubio’s resignation, could assume the mayoralty if his list prevails, despite prior legal scrutiny over re-election rules. Bruce’s 20.4% market share aligns with his consistent second-place polling among remaining named candidates, while lower odds for Daniel Urresti, Susel Paredes, Ricardo Belmont, and others reflect their single-digit or lower shares in the same surveys. Trader consensus tracks these trends with limited volatility in the final weeks before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 77.3%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡 20.4%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉 1.8%
Francis James Allison Oyague 1.8%
$155,863 交易量
$155,863 交易量
拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加
77%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡
20%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉
2%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
耶胡德·西蒙·穆納羅
<1%
聖地亞哥·羅森多·阿巴卡·萊昂
<1%
路易斯·伊薩埃爾·魯比奧·伊德羅戈
<1%
路易斯·阿爾貝托·烏埃特·托倫蒂諾
<1%
埃德加多·雷南·德·波馬爾·維斯卡拉
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
潔西卡·維維安娜·利納雷斯·羅梅羅
<1%
魯本·何塞·拉米雷斯·馬特奧
<1%
伊莉莎白·瑪麗亞·德爾·羅莎里奧·萊昂·欽查伊
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
奧斯瓦爾多·埃爾南·巴爾加斯·庫埃利亞
<1%
魯本·丹尼爾·博尼拉·埃斯皮諾薩
<1%
薩繆爾·馬科斯·達扎·泰佩
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
薩米爾·法蘭克·奎斯佩·卡瓦列羅
<1%
卡洛斯·阿爾貝托·特哈達·諾列加
<1%
拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 77.3%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡 20.4%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉 1.8%
Francis James Allison Oyague 1.8%
$155,863 交易量
$155,863 交易量
拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加
77%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡
20%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉
2%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
耶胡德·西蒙·穆納羅
<1%
聖地亞哥·羅森多·阿巴卡·萊昂
<1%
路易斯·伊薩埃爾·魯比奧·伊德羅戈
<1%
路易斯·阿爾貝托·烏埃特·托倫蒂諾
<1%
埃德加多·雷南·德·波馬爾·維斯卡拉
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
潔西卡·維維安娜·利納雷斯·羅梅羅
<1%
魯本·何塞·拉米雷斯·馬特奧
<1%
伊莉莎白·瑪麗亞·德爾·羅莎里奧·萊昂·欽查伊
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
奧斯瓦爾多·埃爾南·巴爾加斯·庫埃利亞
<1%
魯本·丹尼爾·博尼拉·埃斯皮諾薩
<1%
薩繆爾·馬科斯·達扎·泰佩
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
薩米爾·法蘭克·奎斯佩·卡瓦列羅
<1%
卡洛斯·阿爾貝托·特哈達·諾列加
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 77.3% because recent September 2026 polls from IEP and CIT place his Renovación Popular list first in voter intention, often above 37%, well ahead of Carlos Bruce at 14–32% and Francis Allison near 9–14%. The October 4 election occurs under a structure where López Aliaga, confirmed by the JNE as first regidor after Luis Rubio’s resignation, could assume the mayoralty if his list prevails, despite prior legal scrutiny over re-election rules. Bruce’s 20.4% market share aligns with his consistent second-place polling among remaining named candidates, while lower odds for Daniel Urresti, Susel Paredes, Ricardo Belmont, and others reflect their single-digit or lower shares in the same surveys. Trader consensus tracks these trends with limited volatility in the final weeks before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions