**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於39%+ 54%
36-39% 13%
33-36% 8.0%
30-33% 8%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
少於30%
4%
30-33%
8%
33-36%
10%
36-39%
18%
39%+
54%
39%+ 54%
36-39% 13%
33-36% 8.0%
30-33% 8%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
少於30%
$166 交易量
4%
30-33%
$317 交易量
8%
33-36%
$272 交易量
10%
36-39%
$344 交易量
18%
39%+
$561 交易量
54%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
交易量
$1,661結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$1,661結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions