Lula's position as incumbent and consistent polling leader has anchored trader consensus around his 87.5% implied probability of securing an outright first-round majority on October 4. Recent late-August surveys from institutes including Nexus, AtlasIntel, and Real Time Big Data show him in the high 30s to low 40s, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema in single digits. The start of free electoral broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing campaign dynamics have reinforced Lula's structural advantages in voter recognition and coalition support, while vote splitting among right-leaning contenders limits any single rival's path to 50% plus one. Low single-digit or sub-1% odds for the remaining listed candidates reflect their negligible national support and structural barriers to first-round victory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於魯拉 88%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 10%
雷南·桑托斯 1.0%
赫茲·迪亞斯 <1%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
魯拉
88%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
10%
雷南·桑托斯
1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
1%
Samara
1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
1%
羅納爾多·凱亞多
1%
澤馬
1%
克拉麗安娜·巴拉奧
<1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔
<1%
魯拉 88%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 10%
雷南·桑托斯 1.0%
赫茲·迪亞斯 <1%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
魯拉
$2,814 交易量
88%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
$929 交易量
10%
雷南·桑托斯
$366 交易量
1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
$296 交易量
1%
Samara
$296 交易量
1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
$316 交易量
1%
Pablo Marçal
$316 交易量
1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
$477 交易量
1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
$490 交易量
1%
羅納爾多·凱亞多
$366 交易量
1%
澤馬
$486 交易量
1%
克拉麗安娜·巴拉奧
$285 交易量
<1%
埃德米爾森·科斯塔
$259 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as incumbent and consistent polling leader has anchored trader consensus around his 87.5% implied probability of securing an outright first-round majority on October 4. Recent late-August surveys from institutes including Nexus, AtlasIntel, and Real Time Big Data show him in the high 30s to low 40s, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema in single digits. The start of free electoral broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing campaign dynamics have reinforced Lula's structural advantages in voter recognition and coalition support, while vote splitting among right-leaning contenders limits any single rival's path to 50% plus one. Low single-digit or sub-1% odds for the remaining listed candidates reflect their negligible national support and structural barriers to first-round victory.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
交易量
$7,696結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as incumbent and consistent polling leader has anchored trader consensus around his 87.5% implied probability of securing an outright first-round majority on October 4. Recent late-August surveys from institutes including Nexus, AtlasIntel, and Real Time Big Data show him in the high 30s to low 40s, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema in single digits. The start of free electoral broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing campaign dynamics have reinforced Lula's structural advantages in voter recognition and coalition support, while vote splitting among right-leaning contenders limits any single rival's path to 50% plus one. Low single-digit or sub-1% odds for the remaining listed candidates reflect their negligible national support and structural barriers to first-round victory.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$7,696結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ETLula's position as incumbent and consistent polling leader has anchored trader consensus around his 87.5% implied probability of securing an outright first-round majority on October 4. Recent late-August surveys from institutes including Nexus, AtlasIntel, and Real Time Big Data show him in the high 30s to low 40s, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema in single digits. The start of free electoral broadcasts on August 28 and ongoing campaign dynamics have reinforced Lula's structural advantages in voter recognition and coalition support, while vote splitting among right-leaning contenders limits any single rival's path to 50% plus one. Low single-digit or sub-1% odds for the remaining listed candidates reflect their negligible national support and structural barriers to first-round victory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions