Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 43%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 38%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 7.4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15% 6.8%
$364,298 交易量
$364,298 交易量
2026-10-03
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
5%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
7%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
43%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
38%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
2%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
4%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
7%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
<1%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
<1%
其他
1%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 43%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 38%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 7.4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15% 6.8%
$364,298 交易量
$364,298 交易量
2026-10-03
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
$15,836 交易量
5%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
$30,151 交易量
7%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
$26,425 交易量
43%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
$30,536 交易量
38%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
$10,745 交易量
2%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
$9,025 交易量
4%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
$14,226 交易量
7%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
$211,721 交易量
<1%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
$4,889 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
$4,913 交易量
<1%
其他
$5,830 交易量
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$364,298結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$364,298結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions