**Recent polling in the run-up to the September 6, 2026, Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election shows the AfD consistently at 41–43 percent, well ahead of the CDU near 22–24 percent, with smaller parties clustered around or below the 5 percent threshold.** This places the AfD in a strong position to become the largest party and potentially form the first state government led by the party since 1945, yet the figures remain short of the levels historically needed for a clear absolute majority of 42 seats in the 83-seat chamber under mixed-member proportional rules. Seat conversion depends heavily on how many minor parties clear the threshold and on overhang or leveling mandates, so even a mid-40s vote share can yield seat totals in the high 30s to low 40s. Latest surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and pollytix have shown only modest fluctuations without a decisive late surge that would push the AfD comfortably past the majority line. Traders therefore price the outright-majority outcome at roughly one-third probability, viewing the current lead as substantial but structurally uncertain three weeks before voting. No major campaign events or polling shifts in the past month have materially altered this assessment.