Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於亞瑟·恩里克 90%
薩爾達多·桑帕尤 3.4%
法拉·梅斯基塔 3.3%
羅西·艾雷斯 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
亞瑟·恩里克
90%
薩爾達多·桑帕尤
3%
法拉·梅斯基塔
3%
羅西·艾雷斯
3%
Clébio Genuíno
1%
亞瑟·恩里克 90%
薩爾達多·桑帕尤 3.4%
法拉·梅斯基塔 3.3%
羅西·艾雷斯 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
亞瑟·恩里克
$2,687 交易量
90%
薩爾達多·桑帕尤
$183 交易量
3%
法拉·梅斯基塔
$153 交易量
3%
羅西·艾雷斯
$222 交易量
3%
Clébio Genuíno
$222 交易量
1%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
交易量
$3,467結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$3,467結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arthur Henrique (PL) leads trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the October 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election, reflecting his commanding 60.87% performance in the June 2026 supplementary vote and the Liberal Party’s July convention confirming his candidacy. The prior result remains sub judice at the TSE over eligibility questions tied to his prior mayoral role, yet his margin, party infrastructure, and continuity of support among key voting blocs continue to anchor expectations ahead of the first-round ballot. Other contenders, including Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos), Farah Mesquita (Solidariedade), Rosi Aires, and Clébio Genuíno, trail in a fragmented field with limited recent polling data. Traders appear to price in Henrique’s structural advantages while monitoring court rulings or convention shifts that could reshape the contest before October 4.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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