Recent state election results, including the AfD's strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, have intensified pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid low personal approval and coalition frictions with the SPD over reforms. State premiers from the CDU have publicly rallied behind him to avoid triggering early federal elections that could benefit the AfD ahead of the scheduled 2029 vote, supporting the 54.5% implied probability that no new chancellor takes office before 2028. Potential internal successors such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder remain in contention as alternatives within the Union but face barriers from party unity efforts and the risk of instability, while opposition figures trail due to coalition arithmetic and firewall dynamics against the AfD.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2028年前無下一任總理 54%
鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯 16%
亨德里克·吳斯特 16%
馬庫斯·索德 10%
最新
最新
2029-12-31
2028年前無下一任總理
54%
鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯
16%
亨德里克·吳斯特
16%
馬庫斯·索德
10%
艾莉絲·魏德爾
5%
卡塔麗娜·德勒格
5%
費利克斯·巴納薩克
4%
Heidi Reichinnek
3%
延斯·施潘
2%
卡斯滕·林內曼
2%
Tino Chrupalla
2%
拉爾斯·克林貝爾
2%
薩哈拉·瓦根克內希特
2%
2028年前無下一任總理 54%
鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯 16%
亨德里克·吳斯特 16%
馬庫斯·索德 10%
最新
最新
2029-12-31
2028年前無下一任總理
$816 交易量
54%
鮑里斯·皮斯托留斯
$397 交易量
16%
亨德里克·吳斯特
$234 交易量
16%
馬庫斯·索德
$123 交易量
10%
艾莉絲·魏德爾
$159 交易量
5%
卡塔麗娜·德勒格
$115 交易量
5%
費利克斯·巴納薩克
$299 交易量
4%
Heidi Reichinnek
$79 交易量
3%
延斯·施潘
$104 交易量
2%
卡斯滕·林內曼
$87 交易量
2%
Tino Chrupalla
$112 交易量
2%
拉爾斯·克林貝爾
$87 交易量
2%
薩哈拉·瓦根克內希特
$105 交易量
2%
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election results, including the AfD's strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, have intensified pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid low personal approval and coalition frictions with the SPD over reforms. State premiers from the CDU have publicly rallied behind him to avoid triggering early federal elections that could benefit the AfD ahead of the scheduled 2029 vote, supporting the 54.5% implied probability that no new chancellor takes office before 2028. Potential internal successors such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder remain in contention as alternatives within the Union but face barriers from party unity efforts and the risk of instability, while opposition figures trail due to coalition arithmetic and firewall dynamics against the AfD.
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$2,716結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ETFriedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election results, including the AfD's strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, have intensified pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid low personal approval and coalition frictions with the SPD over reforms. State premiers from the CDU have publicly rallied behind him to avoid triggering early federal elections that could benefit the AfD ahead of the scheduled 2029 vote, supporting the 54.5% implied probability that no new chancellor takes office before 2028. Potential internal successors such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder remain in contention as alternatives within the Union but face barriers from party unity efforts and the risk of instability, while opposition figures trail due to coalition arithmetic and firewall dynamics against the AfD.
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,716結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ETRecent state election results, including the AfD's strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, have intensified pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid low personal approval and coalition frictions with the SPD over reforms. State premiers from the CDU have publicly rallied behind him to avoid triggering early federal elections that could benefit the AfD ahead of the scheduled 2029 vote, supporting the 54.5% implied probability that no new chancellor takes office before 2028. Potential internal successors such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder remain in contention as alternatives within the Union but face barriers from party unity efforts and the risk of instability, while opposition figures trail due to coalition arithmetic and firewall dynamics against the AfD.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions