Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於30+ 47%
25-29 21%
20-24 15%
10-14 9%
最新
最新
2026-10-05
少於5
2%
5-9
8%
10-14
9%
15-19
9%
20-24
15%
25-29
21%
30+
47%
30+ 47%
25-29 21%
20-24 15%
10-14 9%
最新
最新
2026-10-05
少於5
$511 交易量
2%
5-9
$917 交易量
8%
10-14
$2,316 交易量
9%
15-19
$868 交易量
9%
20-24
$638 交易量
15%
25-29
$1,042 交易量
21%
30+
$1,573 交易量
47%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
交易量
$7,865結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETParliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$7,865結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETRecent polling shows the CAQ rebounding under new leader Christine Fréchette, narrowing the gap with the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election and lifting projected seat totals. The party’s gains, concentrated among francophone and older voters in key regions like Quebec City, stem from voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and economic stability, where Fréchette’s team is viewed more favorably than rivals. After eight years in government and prior erosion tied to policy fatigue and leadership transition from François Legault, the CAQ now contests more ridings competitively. Seat models reflect this volatility, with CAQ averages near 28 but wide confidence intervals that keep outcomes above 30 seats in play alongside lower totals if the surge stalls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions