**The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent polling ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, translating into a strong implied probability of forming the next government.** Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Léger and Pallas Data, place the PQ at approximately 30% support, ahead of the PLQ at 24–26%, the CAQ at 20%, the PCQ at 13–15%, and QS at 9–11%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project the PQ securing a majority in the National Assembly, driven primarily by robust francophone backing. The CAQ’s position has weakened following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation and the April leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, amid voter fatigue after two majority governments. The PLQ under Charles Milliard remains competitive but trails, particularly outside Montreal. Minor parties show limited upward movement. With roughly seven weeks until the fixed-date vote and roughly half of decided voters still open to changing preferences, the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage while leaving room for late shifts in a multi-party contest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於魁北克黨 75%
魁北克自由黨 12%
魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ） 12%
魁北克保守黨 <1%
$782,180 交易量
$782,180 交易量
2026-10-04
魁北克黨
75%
魁北克自由黨
12%
魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ）
12%
魁北克保守黨
<1%
魁團
<1%
魁北克綠黨
<1%
魁北克黨 75%
魁北克自由黨 12%
魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ） 12%
魁北克保守黨 <1%
$782,180 交易量
$782,180 交易量
2026-10-04
魁北克黨
$85,885 交易量
75%
魁北克自由黨
$102,852 交易量
12%
魁北克未來聯盟（CAQ）
$110,056 交易量
12%
魁北克保守黨
$223,236 交易量
<1%
魁團
$102,652 交易量
<1%
魁北克綠黨
$157,498 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent polling ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, translating into a strong implied probability of forming the next government.** Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Léger and Pallas Data, place the PQ at approximately 30% support, ahead of the PLQ at 24–26%, the CAQ at 20%, the PCQ at 13–15%, and QS at 9–11%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project the PQ securing a majority in the National Assembly, driven primarily by robust francophone backing.
The CAQ’s position has weakened following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation and the April leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, amid voter fatigue after two majority governments. The PLQ under Charles Milliard remains competitive but trails, particularly outside Montreal. Minor parties show limited upward movement. With roughly seven weeks until the fixed-date vote and roughly half of decided voters still open to changing preferences, the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage while leaving room for late shifts in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$782,180結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent polling ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, translating into a strong implied probability of forming the next government.** Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Léger and Pallas Data, place the PQ at approximately 30% support, ahead of the PLQ at 24–26%, the CAQ at 20%, the PCQ at 13–15%, and QS at 9–11%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project the PQ securing a majority in the National Assembly, driven primarily by robust francophone backing.
The CAQ’s position has weakened following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation and the April leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, amid voter fatigue after two majority governments. The PLQ under Charles Milliard remains competitive but trails, particularly outside Montreal. Minor parties show limited upward movement. With roughly seven weeks until the fixed-date vote and roughly half of decided voters still open to changing preferences, the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage while leaving room for late shifts in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$782,180結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent polling ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, translating into a strong implied probability of forming the next government.** Multiple August 2026 surveys, including Léger and Pallas Data, place the PQ at approximately 30% support, ahead of the PLQ at 24–26%, the CAQ at 20%, the PCQ at 13–15%, and QS at 9–11%. Aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 project the PQ securing a majority in the National Assembly, driven primarily by robust francophone backing. The CAQ’s position has weakened following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation and the April leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, amid voter fatigue after two majority governments. The PLQ under Charles Milliard remains competitive but trails, particularly outside Montreal. Minor parties show limited upward movement. With roughly seven weeks until the fixed-date vote and roughly half of decided voters still open to changing preferences, the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage while leaving room for late shifts in a multi-party contest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
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Frequently Asked Questions