South Dakota's at-large congressional district has favored Republican candidates in every election since 2008, driven by the state's partisan composition and voter registration patterns. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, the Republican primary produced nominee Marty Jackley by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli secured her party's nod unopposed. Recent polling averages reflect Jackley's substantial leads, aligning with trader consensus that places the Republican outcome above 93 percent. Low Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the state further reinforce the gap. A major candidate scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited realistic pathways for reversal before November 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$28,768 交易量
$28,768 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
94%
民主黨
3%
$28,768 交易量
$28,768 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$21,079 交易量
94%
民主黨
$7,688 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has favored Republican candidates in every election since 2008, driven by the state's partisan composition and voter registration patterns. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, the Republican primary produced nominee Marty Jackley by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli secured her party's nod unopposed. Recent polling averages reflect Jackley's substantial leads, aligning with trader consensus that places the Republican outcome above 93 percent. Low Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the state further reinforce the gap. A major candidate scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited realistic pathways for reversal before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$28,768結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has favored Republican candidates in every election since 2008, driven by the state's partisan composition and voter registration patterns. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, the Republican primary produced nominee Marty Jackley by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli secured her party's nod unopposed. Recent polling averages reflect Jackley's substantial leads, aligning with trader consensus that places the Republican outcome above 93 percent. Low Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the state further reinforce the gap. A major candidate scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited realistic pathways for reversal before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,768結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district has favored Republican candidates in every election since 2008, driven by the state's partisan composition and voter registration patterns. With incumbent Dusty Johnson pursuing the governorship, the Republican primary produced nominee Marty Jackley by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli secured her party's nod unopposed. Recent polling averages reflect Jackley's substantial leads, aligning with trader consensus that places the Republican outcome above 93 percent. Low Democratic infrastructure and fundraising in the state further reinforce the gap. A major candidate scandal, health event, or unanticipated national wave could narrow the margin, though historical base rates indicate limited realistic pathways for reversal before November 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions