**Trader sentiment for Manila's highest temperature on August 19 centers on 28–30°C**, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 37%. This distribution aligns with climatological norms and current conditions in the Philippines' southwest monsoon (habagat) season. PAGASA forecasts for August 19 indicate a daily range of 24–31°C under continued habagat influence, with 60% chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation typically cap daytime maxima near or slightly below the August average of ~30–31°C, preventing stronger heating while limiting extreme outliers above 31°C to low single-digit probabilities. Recent model guidance and monitoring show no significant shift toward clearer skies or enhanced insolation that would push readings to 32°C or higher. Historical analogs for mid-August under active monsoon flow reinforce this range, with traders incorporating the latest PAGASA outlooks and regional observations that emphasize rain-cooled conditions over Metro Manila. The tight clustering around 28–30°C reflects this scientific consensus on monsoon-driven moderation ahead of the target date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月19日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月19日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
29°C 38%
28°C 25%
30°C 19%
27°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
7%
28°C
25%
29°C
38%
30°C
19%
31°C
5%
32°C或以上
3%
29°C 38%
28°C 25%
30°C 19%
27°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-19
22°C或以下
$186 交易量
<1%
23°C
$186 交易量
<1%
24°C
$196 交易量
<1%
25°C
$259 交易量
2%
26°C
$118 交易量
5%
27°C
$309 交易量
7%
28°C
$1,216 交易量
25%
29°C
$316 交易量
38%
30°C
$310 交易量
19%
31°C
$228 交易量
5%
32°C或以上
$65 交易量
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's highest temperature on August 19 centers on 28–30°C**, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 37%. This distribution aligns with climatological norms and current conditions in the Philippines' southwest monsoon (habagat) season.
PAGASA forecasts for August 19 indicate a daily range of 24–31°C under continued habagat influence, with 60% chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation typically cap daytime maxima near or slightly below the August average of ~30–31°C, preventing stronger heating while limiting extreme outliers above 31°C to low single-digit probabilities.
Recent model guidance and monitoring show no significant shift toward clearer skies or enhanced insolation that would push readings to 32°C or higher. Historical analogs for mid-August under active monsoon flow reinforce this range, with traders incorporating the latest PAGASA outlooks and regional observations that emphasize rain-cooled conditions over Metro Manila. The tight clustering around 28–30°C reflects this scientific consensus on monsoon-driven moderation ahead of the target date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$3,390結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's highest temperature on August 19 centers on 28–30°C**, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 37%. This distribution aligns with climatological norms and current conditions in the Philippines' southwest monsoon (habagat) season.
PAGASA forecasts for August 19 indicate a daily range of 24–31°C under continued habagat influence, with 60% chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation typically cap daytime maxima near or slightly below the August average of ~30–31°C, preventing stronger heating while limiting extreme outliers above 31°C to low single-digit probabilities.
Recent model guidance and monitoring show no significant shift toward clearer skies or enhanced insolation that would push readings to 32°C or higher. Historical analogs for mid-August under active monsoon flow reinforce this range, with traders incorporating the latest PAGASA outlooks and regional observations that emphasize rain-cooled conditions over Metro Manila. The tight clustering around 28–30°C reflects this scientific consensus on monsoon-driven moderation ahead of the target date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,390結束日期
2026-08-19市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Trader sentiment for Manila's highest temperature on August 19 centers on 28–30°C**, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 37%. This distribution aligns with climatological norms and current conditions in the Philippines' southwest monsoon (habagat) season. PAGASA forecasts for August 19 indicate a daily range of 24–31°C under continued habagat influence, with 60% chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation typically cap daytime maxima near or slightly below the August average of ~30–31°C, preventing stronger heating while limiting extreme outliers above 31°C to low single-digit probabilities. Recent model guidance and monitoring show no significant shift toward clearer skies or enhanced insolation that would push readings to 32°C or higher. Historical analogs for mid-August under active monsoon flow reinforce this range, with traders incorporating the latest PAGASA outlooks and regional observations that emphasize rain-cooled conditions over Metro Manila. The tight clustering around 28–30°C reflects this scientific consensus on monsoon-driven moderation ahead of the target date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions