Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月17日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月17日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$87,913 交易量
$87,913 交易量
2026-08-17
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$87,913 交易量
$87,913 交易量
2026-08-17
32°C or below
$1,646 交易量
No
33°C
$1,041 交易量
No
34°C
$4,123 交易量
No
35°C
$3,875 交易量
No
36°C
$19,636 交易量
No
37°C
$16,895 交易量
No
38°C
$20,756 交易量
Yes
39°C
$12,629 交易量
No
40°C
$5,289 交易量
No
41°C
$1,502 交易量
No
42°C or higher
$522 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
交易量
$87,913結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$87,913結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions