Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 8–12°C under building high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup aligns with climatological August lows near 8°C but features modest model spread in exact timing of the coldest hour around dawn. Traders have priced 5°C or below at 41% implied probability, reflecting residual uncertainty from potential localized cold pooling in valleys or slight forecast shifts, while clustering around 8–10°C outcomes captures the consensus range from current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
7°C 52%
9°C 28%
10°C 28%
8°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
5°C or below
2%
6°C
5%
7°C
52%
8°C
28%
9°C
28%
10°C
28%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
7°C 52%
9°C 28%
10°C 28%
8°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
5°C or below
$5 Wol.
2%
6°C
$74 Wol.
5%
7°C
$84 Wol.
52%
8°C
$0 Wol.
28%
9°C
$0 Wol.
28%
10°C
$0 Wol.
28%
11°C
$5 Wol.
27%
12°C
$11 Wol.
27%
13°C
$115 Wol.
<1%
14°C
$255 Wol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$150 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 8–12°C under building high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup aligns with climatological August lows near 8°C but features modest model spread in exact timing of the coldest hour around dawn. Traders have priced 5°C or below at 41% implied probability, reflecting residual uncertainty from potential localized cold pooling in valleys or slight forecast shifts, while clustering around 8–10°C outcomes captures the consensus range from current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$447Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 8–12°C under building high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup aligns with climatological August lows near 8°C but features modest model spread in exact timing of the coldest hour around dawn. Traders have priced 5°C or below at 41% implied probability, reflecting residual uncertainty from potential localized cold pooling in valleys or slight forecast shifts, while clustering around 8–10°C outcomes captures the consensus range from current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$447Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on August 24 will likely fall between 8–12°C under building high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling. This setup aligns with climatological August lows near 8°C but features modest model spread in exact timing of the coldest hour around dawn. Traders have priced 5°C or below at 41% implied probability, reflecting residual uncertainty from potential localized cold pooling in valleys or slight forecast shifts, while clustering around 8–10°C outcomes captures the consensus range from current guidance. Updated model runs tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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