Recent MetService and international ensemble forecasts position Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23 near 11–12 °C as the most probable range, driven by northwest airflow, increased cloud cover, and lighter winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology, where clear skies and southerly flows often produce lows closer to the 9 °C historical average. Model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer temperatures and dew-point forecasts has tightened in the past 48 hours, narrowing uncertainty and elevating implied probabilities for 11 °C (53.5 %) and 12 °C (43.5 %). Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day wind shifts that could alter cooling rates before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
9°C 34%
10°C 18%
13°C 1.9%
8°C <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
34%
10°C
18%
11°C
54%
12°C
43%
13°C
11%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
9°C 34%
10°C 18%
13°C 1.9%
8°C <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
$164 Wol.
<1%
6°C
$180 Wol.
<1%
7°C
$180 Wol.
<1%
8°C
$187 Wol.
1%
9°C
$74 Wol.
34%
10°C
$21 Wol.
18%
11°C
$66 Wol.
54%
12°C
$649 Wol.
43%
13°C
$197 Wol.
11%
14°C
$145 Wol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$225 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international ensemble forecasts position Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23 near 11–12 °C as the most probable range, driven by northwest airflow, increased cloud cover, and lighter winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology, where clear skies and southerly flows often produce lows closer to the 9 °C historical average. Model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer temperatures and dew-point forecasts has tightened in the past 48 hours, narrowing uncertainty and elevating implied probabilities for 11 °C (53.5 %) and 12 °C (43.5 %). Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day wind shifts that could alter cooling rates before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,982Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international ensemble forecasts position Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23 near 11–12 °C as the most probable range, driven by northwest airflow, increased cloud cover, and lighter winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology, where clear skies and southerly flows often produce lows closer to the 9 °C historical average. Model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer temperatures and dew-point forecasts has tightened in the past 48 hours, narrowing uncertainty and elevating implied probabilities for 11 °C (53.5 %) and 12 °C (43.5 %). Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day wind shifts that could alter cooling rates before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,982Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and international ensemble forecasts position Wellington’s minimum temperature on August 23 near 11–12 °C as the most probable range, driven by northwest airflow, increased cloud cover, and lighter winds that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions contrast with typical August climatology, where clear skies and southerly flows often produce lows closer to the 9 °C historical average. Model consensus on nocturnal boundary-layer temperatures and dew-point forecasts has tightened in the past 48 hours, narrowing uncertainty and elevating implied probabilities for 11 °C (53.5 %) and 12 °C (43.5 %). Traders are monitoring the next model cycle and any late-day wind shifts that could alter cooling rates before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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