Latest ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 22–23 °C for Munich on August 23 under typical late-summer synoptic conditions featuring light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and no significant warm or cold advection. These outputs align closely with the August climatological mean high near 23 °C and explain why market-implied probabilities concentrate heavily on 22 °C (36.5 %) and 23 °C (51.5 %), with only modest tail risk assigned to 24 °C or higher. No major model spread or rapidly evolving features such as convective outbreaks or frontal passages have emerged in the most recent guidance to shift the consensus, keeping the narrow distribution stable ahead of official observational verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Munich on August 23?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 23?
23°C 52%
22°C 37%
24°C 6%
21°C 5%
$49,016 Wol.
$49,016 Wol.
Aug 23, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
5%
22°C
37%
23°C
52%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
23°C 52%
22°C 37%
24°C 6%
21°C 5%
$49,016 Wol.
$49,016 Wol.
Aug 23, 2026
16°C or below
$6,861 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$426 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$345 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$5,150 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$4,538 Wol.
1%
21°C
$7,306 Wol.
5%
22°C
$7,918 Wol.
37%
23°C
$5,098 Wol.
52%
24°C
$4,265 Wol.
6%
25°C
$4,570 Wol.
1%
26°C or higher
$2,539 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 22–23 °C for Munich on August 23 under typical late-summer synoptic conditions featuring light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and no significant warm or cold advection. These outputs align closely with the August climatological mean high near 23 °C and explain why market-implied probabilities concentrate heavily on 22 °C (36.5 %) and 23 °C (51.5 %), with only modest tail risk assigned to 24 °C or higher. No major model spread or rapidly evolving features such as convective outbreaks or frontal passages have emerged in the most recent guidance to shift the consensus, keeping the narrow distribution stable ahead of official observational verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$49,016Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 22–23 °C for Munich on August 23 under typical late-summer synoptic conditions featuring light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and no significant warm or cold advection. These outputs align closely with the August climatological mean high near 23 °C and explain why market-implied probabilities concentrate heavily on 22 °C (36.5 %) and 23 °C (51.5 %), with only modest tail risk assigned to 24 °C or higher. No major model spread or rapidly evolving features such as convective outbreaks or frontal passages have emerged in the most recent guidance to shift the consensus, keeping the narrow distribution stable ahead of official observational verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$49,016Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) models indicate a most probable daily maximum of 22–23 °C for Munich on August 23 under typical late-summer synoptic conditions featuring light southerly flow, partial cloud cover, and no significant warm or cold advection. These outputs align closely with the August climatological mean high near 23 °C and explain why market-implied probabilities concentrate heavily on 22 °C (36.5 %) and 23 °C (51.5 %), with only modest tail risk assigned to 24 °C or higher. No major model spread or rapidly evolving features such as convective outbreaks or frontal passages have emerged in the most recent guidance to shift the consensus, keeping the narrow distribution stable ahead of official observational verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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