Traders see the October LiveBench overall leaderboard as highly uncertain, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across many entrants and sub-25% odds for individual leaders like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta. Current snapshots show Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol variants trading the top spots on LiveBench's contamination-resistant tasks, with recent June releases highlighting gains in reasoning and coding categories. Chinese labs such as Moonshot (Kimi) and emerging contenders keep pressure on through rapid iteration, while xAI and others trail on the latest public data. Key swing factors include new model drops, fine-tuning efficiency, and benchmark refreshes before the end-October cutoff, where even small capability edges or cost improvements could shift trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 32%
Meta 30%
Thinky 25%
Baidu 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
25%
Meta
25%
Thinky
13%
Baidu
20%
Z.ai
15%
OpenAI
23%
Alibaba
22%
Mistral
24%
Microsoft
22%
MiniMax
12%
Meituan
19%
Amazon
18%
StepFun
14%
DeepSeek
14%
ByteDance
15%
Moonshot
24%
Nvidia
18%
Xiaomi
19%
Anthropic
14%
Tencent
24%
SpaceXAI
32%
Google 32%
Meta 30%
Thinky 25%
Baidu 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
$33 Vol.
25%
Meta
$20 Vol.
25%
Thinky
$20 Vol.
13%
Baidu
$20 Vol.
20%
Z.ai
$20 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
23%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
22%
Mistral
$33 Vol.
24%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
22%
MiniMax
$20 Vol.
12%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
19%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
18%
StepFun
$20 Vol.
14%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$20 Vol.
15%
Moonshot
$20 Vol.
24%
Nvidia
$20 Vol.
18%
Xiaomi
$20 Vol.
19%
Anthropic
$20 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$20 Vol.
24%
SpaceXAI
$20 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see the October LiveBench overall leaderboard as highly uncertain, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across many entrants and sub-25% odds for individual leaders like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta. Current snapshots show Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol variants trading the top spots on LiveBench's contamination-resistant tasks, with recent June releases highlighting gains in reasoning and coding categories. Chinese labs such as Moonshot (Kimi) and emerging contenders keep pressure on through rapid iteration, while xAI and others trail on the latest public data. Key swing factors include new model drops, fine-tuning efficiency, and benchmark refreshes before the end-October cutoff, where even small capability edges or cost improvements could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$326Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see the October LiveBench overall leaderboard as highly uncertain, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across many entrants and sub-25% odds for individual leaders like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta. Current snapshots show Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol variants trading the top spots on LiveBench's contamination-resistant tasks, with recent June releases highlighting gains in reasoning and coding categories. Chinese labs such as Moonshot (Kimi) and emerging contenders keep pressure on through rapid iteration, while xAI and others trail on the latest public data. Key swing factors include new model drops, fine-tuning efficiency, and benchmark refreshes before the end-October cutoff, where even small capability edges or cost improvements could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$326Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the October LiveBench overall leaderboard as highly uncertain, reflected in the broad 50% implied probabilities across many entrants and sub-25% odds for individual leaders like Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta. Current snapshots show Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol variants trading the top spots on LiveBench's contamination-resistant tasks, with recent June releases highlighting gains in reasoning and coding categories. Chinese labs such as Moonshot (Kimi) and emerging contenders keep pressure on through rapid iteration, while xAI and others trail on the latest public data. Key swing factors include new model drops, fine-tuning efficiency, and benchmark refreshes before the end-October cutoff, where even small capability edges or cost improvements could shift trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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