Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$17,518 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
31 octobre 2026
3%
31 décembre 2026
15%
$17,518 Vol.
31 octobre 2026
$9,489 Vol.
3%
31 décembre 2026
$8,030 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,518Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,518Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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