Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 75% for the best large language model by end of October due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases in mid-2026, which top independent benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding leaderboards while demonstrating superior long-horizon reasoning and tool use. Traders view these capabilities as extending Anthropic's edge over competitors amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates have narrowed gaps on some metrics but trail in consistent developer adoption for complex workflows, keeping their probabilities near 10%. With resolution still months away, further benchmark shifts or major announcements could alter sentiment, though current consensus reflects Anthropic's demonstrated frontier positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 82%
Google 10%
OpenAI 9%
Microsoft 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
75%
10%
OpenAI
9%
Microsoft
9%
Alibaba
7%
Thinky
7%
Moonshot
6%
Z.ai
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Amazon
5%
Nvidia
5%
Mistral
5%
Meituan
5%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Anthropic 82%
Google 10%
OpenAI 9%
Microsoft 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$122 Vol.
75%
$104 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$109 Vol.
9%
Microsoft
$150 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$95 Vol.
7%
Thinky
$104 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$167 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$147 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$104 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$124 Vol.
5%
Nvidia
$104 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$124 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$145 Vol.
5%
Meta
$147 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$127 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$157 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$137 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$137 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$137 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$137 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$137 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 75% for the best large language model by end of October due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases in mid-2026, which top independent benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding leaderboards while demonstrating superior long-horizon reasoning and tool use. Traders view these capabilities as extending Anthropic's edge over competitors amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates have narrowed gaps on some metrics but trail in consistent developer adoption for complex workflows, keeping their probabilities near 10%. With resolution still months away, further benchmark shifts or major announcements could alter sentiment, though current consensus reflects Anthropic's demonstrated frontier positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,718Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 75% for the best large language model by end of October due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases in mid-2026, which top independent benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding leaderboards while demonstrating superior long-horizon reasoning and tool use. Traders view these capabilities as extending Anthropic's edge over competitors amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates have narrowed gaps on some metrics but trail in consistent developer adoption for complex workflows, keeping their probabilities near 10%. With resolution still months away, further benchmark shifts or major announcements could alter sentiment, though current consensus reflects Anthropic's demonstrated frontier positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,718Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 75% for the best large language model by end of October due to its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases in mid-2026, which top independent benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and agentic coding leaderboards while demonstrating superior long-horizon reasoning and tool use. Traders view these capabilities as extending Anthropic's edge over competitors amid rapid iteration cycles. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and Google's Gemini updates have narrowed gaps on some metrics but trail in consistent developer adoption for complex workflows, keeping their probabilities near 10%. With resolution still months away, further benchmark shifts or major announcements could alter sentiment, though current consensus reflects Anthropic's demonstrated frontier positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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