The closely matched market-implied odds reflect intense competition among AI labs racing to deliver the most capable autonomous agents by late October, with no single company holding a decisive edge in demonstrated tool use, multi-step reasoning, or real-world task completion. Factors such as integration depth with external APIs, reliability on long-horizon planning benchmarks, and safety guardrails are differentiating contenders like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, while Chinese firms including Moonshot and Alibaba gain traction through rapid iteration and specialized model releases. Traders appear focused on upcoming developer conferences and capability demonstrations that could shift sentiment, as agent performance remains highly sensitive to small advances in large language model orchestration and evaluation metrics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoonshot 21%
OpenAI 13%
Alibaba 12%
Xiaomi 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Moonshot
21%
OpenAI
13%
Alibaba
12%
Xiaomi
12%
SpaceXAI
10%
ByteDance
7%
Amazon
6%
Baidu
5%
Mistral
4%
Microsoft
4%
Meta
4%
9%
Z.ai
3%
DeepSeek
3%
MiniMax
3%
Nvidia
2%
Meituan
2%
Anthropic
36%
Moonshot 21%
OpenAI 13%
Alibaba 12%
Xiaomi 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Moonshot
$37 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$45 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$37 Vol.
12%
Xiaomi
$47 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
10%
ByteDance
$55 Vol.
7%
Amazon
$61 Vol.
6%
Baidu
$53 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$53 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
4%
Meta
$81 Vol.
4%
$37 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
$37 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$37 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$48 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$53 Vol.
2%
Meituan
$74 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$130 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The closely matched market-implied odds reflect intense competition among AI labs racing to deliver the most capable autonomous agents by late October, with no single company holding a decisive edge in demonstrated tool use, multi-step reasoning, or real-world task completion. Factors such as integration depth with external APIs, reliability on long-horizon planning benchmarks, and safety guardrails are differentiating contenders like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, while Chinese firms including Moonshot and Alibaba gain traction through rapid iteration and specialized model releases. Traders appear focused on upcoming developer conferences and capability demonstrations that could shift sentiment, as agent performance remains highly sensitive to small advances in large language model orchestration and evaluation metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$972Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The closely matched market-implied odds reflect intense competition among AI labs racing to deliver the most capable autonomous agents by late October, with no single company holding a decisive edge in demonstrated tool use, multi-step reasoning, or real-world task completion. Factors such as integration depth with external APIs, reliability on long-horizon planning benchmarks, and safety guardrails are differentiating contenders like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, while Chinese firms including Moonshot and Alibaba gain traction through rapid iteration and specialized model releases. Traders appear focused on upcoming developer conferences and capability demonstrations that could shift sentiment, as agent performance remains highly sensitive to small advances in large language model orchestration and evaluation metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$972Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds reflect intense competition among AI labs racing to deliver the most capable autonomous agents by late October, with no single company holding a decisive edge in demonstrated tool use, multi-step reasoning, or real-world task completion. Factors such as integration depth with external APIs, reliability on long-horizon planning benchmarks, and safety guardrails are differentiating contenders like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, while Chinese firms including Moonshot and Alibaba gain traction through rapid iteration and specialized model releases. Traders appear focused on upcoming developer conferences and capability demonstrations that could shift sentiment, as agent performance remains highly sensitive to small advances in large language model orchestration and evaluation metrics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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